U.S. high yield credit spreads have widened year to date, reflecting greater investor caution about perceived default risk. The move also raises concerns about possible credit contagion. However, because spread widening has been concentrated in the lowest-quality issuers rather than higher-quality issuers, we don’t anticipate broader market stress.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-related funding needs are expected to support elevated credit issuance over the next few years. This may create potential investment opportunities but also material risks, reinforcing the importance of careful positioning and rigorous credit selection.

The S&P 500’s worst day and the best day that followed have something in common: you can’t predict either one. The table below underscores the risk of stepping out of the market during periods of heightened volatility. While selling after a sharp decline may feel like a way to avoid further losses, some of the market’s biggest gains have historically occurred soon after its biggest drops. For example, in 2020 and 2025, the S&P 500’s best day after the year’s worst came just six and three trading days later, respectively.

Change can be difficult to navigate, especially when its principal agent explicitly rejects prevailing norms. Less than five months into the job, Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh has put investors in that position, which makes charting the course of monetary policy complicated.